Discounted cash flow analysis is used to help value the potential of an organisation and in making other investment decisions. The discounted cash flow method assesses the projected stream of economic benefits (such as cash flow, net sale proceeds, value of intangible assets) and calculates the maximum investment that should be made. This is known as net present value analysis. It also enables comparison of an investment amount with a stream of economic benefits and provides an overall rate of return. This is known as internal rate of return analysis, enabling analysts to assess the rate of return provided by a particular investment. Many consider that discounted cash flow analysis is more useful than other valuation methods, such as price/earnings ratios. If an investment case is sound, then discounted cash flow will highlight this.

Decide the discount factor: the percentage that will be deducted from each year’s cash flow. Determining this is central to the whole exercise. A higher discount factor will generate a lower overall valuation. Typically, two things influence the level of the discount factor. The first is the level of business risk. If the risk is high (and the investment is unlikely to meet its projections), the discount factor should also be high. Second, there is often a compromise between the cost of borrowed money (such as 5% interest) and the return expected by the investors (for example, 15%); in this case, the discount factor would be 10%. It may be desirable to select a range of discount factors, providing optimistic, realistic and worst-case scenarios.

Apply the discount factor to the net cash flow for each year of the projection and to the terminal value. The figures resulting from these calculations are the present value contribution of each year’s future cash flow; adding these values provides a total estimate for the value of the investment.